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Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Dec 13, 12:03PM CST

So far corn futures are higher by 1/2 a cent in the front months, with expiring Dec up 5 cents. They were as much as 7 cents higher earlier in the session. US and China have agreed to a Phase One deal, with the Chinese willing to include increased imports of US corn as part of the deal. Export commitments of corn are now 44% behind the same week last year, the smallest that gap has been since the beginning of the MY. Compared to the USDA projection, which was left unch on Tuesday, combined shipped and unshipped sales are 33% complete vs. the 50% average. Exports are 15% of that 1.85 bbu, behind the 22% normal pace but matching 2 of the previous 4 years.

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.72, up 5 cents,

Mar 20 Corn is at $3.78 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

May 20 Corn is at $3.84 3/4, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.90 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



So far soybeans are up by as much as 5 ¾ cents in the front months, retreating from earlier session gains of 18-19 cents. Dec Soymeal futures as well as bean oil futures are both unchanged on their last trading day. The soybean market is mostly responsive to the news regarding the trade war, and that the US and China have agreed on the context in the Phase One deal. The bulls see the increase in Chinese purchases, while the bears are pointing out it’s the same story buy the rumor sell the fact action. Soybean export commitments are now 56% of the USDA projection, lagging the 69% average pace but above the 53% last year.

Jan 20 Soybeans are at $9.03 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 Soybeans are at $9.18, up 5 1/2 cents,

May 20 Soybeans are at $9.31 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $9.44, up 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Soybean Meal is at $292.60, unch,

Dec 19 Soybean Oil is at $32.03, unch,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Friday winter wheat futures are on a late week sell the fact drop, down by 3 1/4 to 4 3/4 in the front months. MPLS wheat is unresponsive, with fractional midday gains. This comes after double digit gains on Thursday. Through the first half of the Marketing Year, wheat bookings averaged 472,004 MT/week, a 5.04% improvement on last year’s average through the first half. Shipments through the first half of the MY averaged 475,592 MT, compared to last year’s 391,412 MT first half average. In total export commitments are now 64% of the USDA’s 975 mbu export projection, which is lagging the normal 75% pace and 68% last year.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.27 1/4, down 3 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.38 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.22 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were up by triple digits at midday; with Feb futures leading the rally with a $2.37 push. Feeder cattle futures are making a $3.00 move north, as futures are up by $2.70 to $3.80 at midday. The 12/11 CME Feeder Cattle index was at $143.31 with a 31-cent drop. The USDA showed morning boxed beef prices up after a full week of declines. Choice boxes were up $1.39, while select boxes were $1.70 higher. The USDA shows light to moderate demand for Cash sales, listing ranges of $118- $120, with a bulk around 119. Results from this week’s bonus FCE auction saw 977 head unsold, with offers of $120-121. The USDA estimates week to date FI cattle slaughter at 386,000 head through Thursday, that is 9,000 head above last week’s pace.

Dec 19 Cattle are at $122.325, up $1.900,

Feb 20 Cattle are at $127.475, up $2.375,

Apr 20 Cattle are at $128.100, up $1.900,

Jan 20 Feeder Cattle are at $146.350, up $3.800

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle are at $146.500, up $3.050

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle are at $148.275, up $2.700

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures are up by as much as $1.72 during the morning session, save for the expiring Dec futures, which are closing the gap on the cash price. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/11 was up 26 cents to $59.72. From yesterday’s export sales report, China purchased 5,605 MT of pork through the week ending 12/05. That was a 3,817 MT increase over bookings from the PRC during the same week in 2018. The country accounted for 36.57% of weekly shipments, with 13,908 MT of pork through the week. USDA’s pork carcass cutout value was up by $2.72 this morning, with most of the primals also up, minus the ham and butt. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/13 was at $48.18, up $0.37. USDA estimated FI WTD hog slaughter at 1.963 million head through Thursday, which is 19,000 head behind last week’s pace. They lowered Wednesday’s estimate by 6,000 head.

Dec 19 Hogs are at $60.350, down $0.650,

Feb 20 Hogs are at $69.650, up $1.000

Apr 20 Hogs are at $76.350, up $1.725

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The cotton market gives back overnight gains with the board showing front month futures down by as much as 56 points so far. The top three cotton purchasers from yesterday’s export sales report were Pakistan (61,339 RB), Vietnam (52,292 RB), and Bangladesh (19,214 RB). Vietnam accounts for a full quarter of all MY shipments. Export commitments for upland cotton are now 71% of the USDA export projection for 19/20, with the 5-year average pace at 64% and last year at 75%. The Seam online cotton trading reported 55,784 bales sold online, with a 3.7% increase in average gross price. The Cotlook A Index remained firm and is still at 75.35 for 12/12. The updated AWP for cotton increased by 69 points to 56.66 cents per lb. The previous movement was a 23 point decrease from last week.

Mar 20 Cotton is at 66.61, down 56 points,

May 20 Cotton is at 67.8, down 31 points

Jul 20 Cotton is at 68.64, down 3 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



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